Allen in VA

By
November 7, 2006

Fox predicts Delay’s seat is gone to the Dems – they get the House.

I’m going on a limb but I’m calling the VA Senate for Allen with 92.43 precincts in:

G F Allen Republican 1,054,771 49.85%
  J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,035,546 48.94%

I’ve been following the counties most of the night.



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Comments:
  1. Hal says:

    Looks like one county whose results haven’t come in yet is just outside Richmond, which will be heavily Democratic. Allen’s margin over Webb has shrunk from 20K to 12K in the last 15 minutes. I wouldn’t get too far ahead of these numbers yet.

  2. la says:

    what about arlington?

  3. Dan Riehl says:

    it’s going to be a couple thousand votes but I dont see webb making it all up. That’s going on a limb. lol

  4. Reid says:

    Fox just mentioned that < 1% allows Webb to request a recount. It could be a month before we know the answer (groan).

  5. AJ Lynch says:

    I just looked at the website and thes are the unreported areas/counties and my estimate of votes from each:
    Fairfx-4,500
    Henrico-3,500
    James City-4,000
    Loudound- 30,000
    Northumberland-1,000
    Prince William- 40,000 (yes 40,000)
    Richmond – 15,000
    Norfolk City- 6,500
    A couple other had less than 500 each not yet reported.
    That’s a total of about 107,000 unreported votes.
    Questions – my email is bds2day@yahoo.com
    AJ Lynch 1050PM EST

  6. Ken Adams says:

    Dan, I fear someone may be sawing that limb off on you. 3rd Congressional district still has 10% of the precincts outstanding — that could be another 6000 votes for Webb if the current proportions hold. Most of the missing precints are in Richmond City.
    Barone was just saying on Fox that he suspects a recount will happen here. He just might be correct.

  7. Dan Riehl says:

    That wouldn’t surprise me, the margin may be below 1% but Virginia Beach had votes that looked to offset what Webb would get from his remaning counties. No matter what, we are probably looking at a recount.

  8. Bryan says:

    Better look again at the unreported localities. Several urban areas are still way less than 80% in. And the unreported votes in Fairfax and Arlington alone could overcome a 10,000 vote lead.

  9. la says:

    still 3 more fairfax co. (my home town) precincts to go as well …

  10. I think your call is safe Dan.
    –Jason

  11. la says:

    jim lindgren at volokh.com now predicting a 550-vote webb victory

  12. Dan Riehl says:

    It’s 13K for allen at 96.60% – I guess we’ll see. But I’m not pulling back, like the WaPo has done on Steele. LOL 500 votes?

  13. po says:

    Maybe Dan wasn’t “looking at the counties” as well as he ought.

  14. Ivan says:

    The counties around Richmond will lean Allen…Richmond City is almost all in and overwhelmingly Democrat. I stuck out like a sore thumb voting in d’town RIC this morning in my Air Force flight suit.

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  16. la says:

    allen needs to pick up the pace in price william and close the gap in loundon … to make up for fairfax/newport news/norfolk/richmond … or he’s toast

  17. Dan Riehl says:

    It looks like the absentees aren’t in in Virginia Beach

  18. Dan Riehl says:

    Richmond is coming on too late. I hope there are lawyers on the ground. I know it’s solid Dem. But the lag is troubling.

  19. Daryl Herbert says:

    Our host Dan wrote: “Richmond is coming on too late. I hope there are lawyers on the ground. I know it’s solid Dem. But the lag is troubling.”
    You think they are waiting to see how many votes their man needs, before they release their results?

  20. Jay says:

    look at Dan with the Malkin/Fox mention minutes ago!

  21. Gil says:

    Don’t be so sure that Allen won…..

  22. Ken Adams says:

    Many of the open precincts are central absentees. This may not have 100% in until lunchtime tomorrow, then the recount battle can start.

  23. physics geek says:

    I’ve been watching this race all night. It’s not doing wonders for my digestion.
    Does anyone know if there are any absentee ballots still to be counted? If not, this could have an ugly finish.

  24. vastrightwinger says:

    2% left in VA, with the traditionally Republican absentee ballots left to be counted. I think it is too early to call it, but I seriously doubt Webb will win.

  25. po says:

    Probably won’t matter, as it looks like Missouri and Montana are likely to go with Democratic Senators…

  26. vastrightwinger says:

    physics geek, you’re right, this will likely have an ugly finish. I don’t see Webb and the loony left going down without a fight. I predict we’ll see a replay of FLA 2000 with the Lib lawyers trying to get absentee ballots tossed out.

  27. Redstate says:

    CONGRATULATIONS ON MAKING THE NEWS TONIGHT. YOUR PAGE VIEW WAS ON FOX NEWS CHANNEL TONIGHT.
    MICHELLE MAULKIN REFERENCED YOUR PAGE AND SHOWED IT ON SCREEN AS YOU CALLING ALLEN WINNING. Keep up the good work. You really are appreciated.

  28. Roger says:

    It is down to 3000 votes with more than 2% left. Many remaining precincts are blue. This is going down to the wire. I think Webb’s going to pull it out.

  29. vastrightwinger says:

    Actually, it’s 6,000+ votes with less than 2% left.

  30. Election 2006 Watch: GOP Loses Control of House But Senate Continues Contested

    House Democratic Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., fires up fellow Democrats at an election night rally at the Hyatt Regency Hotel near the Capitol in Washington Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2006. She is joined, left to right, by Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, and Rep….

  31. po says:

    Great thing about the internet is as soon as Dan posted his prediction, everybody was here to fact check it…. seems like some of the earliest commenters did a great job and knew their counties very, very well.

  32. la says:

    absentee ballots have apparently been counted in this race: http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTNhMmMzNTBjNDRhN2UxYTg2Y2MzM2I3ZjMzYWMwZTg=
    webb wins … sorry folks

  33. Ken Adams says:

    11:57 PM — the write-ins (2263) now exceed the margin (1757). Pardon me for a short Howard Dean moment, but Yeeeeeaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

  34. po says:

    Less than 2000 votes now….

  35. Berry says:

    OH NO, ALLEN IS LOSING NOW!

  36. chrys says:

    Michelle loves ya Dan!! Looked good. Can you give it to Steele! Remember the Iraq problem Lieberman had? If Iraq was the “be all – end all” Lieberman wouldn’t be so far ahead?!? My brain is cryiing (whatever that means?)

  37. Dan Riehl says:

    Hey, TKS said it was in the bag. LOL How many votes were manufactured late in Richmond? I hope VA Beach is holding out a few, too. LOL This is going to be 2004 all over again

  38. jaime says:

    Riehl seems to have pulled this bogus Allen prediction out of the same place the Democratic boot is headed.
    So, I expect the wacky right wing tin foil hat sore losers to pull an Al Gore and cry all the way to court.

  39. po says:

    Bye Bye to the Senate…
    VA gone
    MT gone
    MO gone
    RI gone
    PA gone
    OH gone

  40. Ken Adams says:

    jaime, I love it when Democrats project. Give me some more!

  41. SinQ says:

    Allen Lost

  42. jaime says:

    Democrats are projecting a Blue Wave, that’s what they project.
    So out of the mainstream. No wonder Republicans cant win elections.

  43. vastrightwinger says:

    Not over yet. Still several strong Allen districts haven’t reported yet.

  44. po says:

    vastrightwringer, name them.

  45. la says:

    everyone take a chill pill … the cnn numbers have been off all night.
    real numbers are here: http://www.sbe.vipnet.org/
    still show allen with a small lead … with mostly dem counties left to report
    recount …

  46. jaime says:

    “recount…”
    Sore losers. Al Gore would be proud.

  47. po says:

    la, incorrect.
    CNN’s number are quicker than the state, they get them direct from stringers and don’t wait for the state to certify…

  48. larry says:

    just wanna make sure i’ve got this right: so jamey ADMITS gore was a lawsuit happy whiny little girlyman? and, by extension, he admits the entire scumocrat party is full of the same?
    wow. not often you get an admission like that from a self-loathing kneejerk leftwing tool.
    wait till the gop ties the house in knots, just like the scummies did. this’ll be FUN!

  49. yyy says:

    As I remember Al Gore did not demand a recount, but let Bushie slide into office with his stolen votes in Florida and Ohio.
    If only he had….

  50. jaime says:

    “so jamey ADMITS gore was a lawsuit happy whiny little girlyman?”
    Ummm…no. If you recall, the name of the suit was Bush V. Gore.
    Also…It’s nice to hear Republicans complain about black box voting, disenfranchisement, and counting every vote. 6 years ago it was whiny sore loser tin foil hat talk. Welcome to reality.

  51. WisePiper says:

    You all have been enormously entertaining, but the humor is wearing thin. Your Christo-Fascist agenda has FINALLY been soundly repudiated across the nation. Time now to crawl back under your rocks and STFU. Good riddance.

  52. larry says:

    it usually takes an event of this magnitude for scumocrats to drop their ‘reasonable’ masks, and show us who they really are.
    and, reading all this, it seems they really are not very classy. ah, well, i suppose it’s to be expected. what else can ya expect from a party whose playbook starts with:
    1) when in doubt, lie
    2) in close elections, demand recounts until you’re ahead – like wa. state – and then stop
    3) when in doubt, sue
    4) voter fraud? sure!
    enjoy it while you can, scummies. you clowns didn’t win yesterday – the gop idiots lost. see you in 2 years.
    PS – please, please, pretty please run hillary for prez.

  53. Valerie_Flame says:

    Going back to this post, John at Crooks & Liars says that Riehl calling Virginia was one of the funniest moments in the Right Wing blogesphere in 2006.
    http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/01/05/the-credibility-of-the-right-wing-blogosphere/

  54. Valerie_Flame says:

    Going back to this post, John at Crooks & Liars says that Riehl calling Virginia was one of the funniest moments in the Right Wing blogesphere in 2006.
    http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/01/05/the-credibility-of-the-right-wing-blogosphere/