How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The NIE
I realize the new National Intelligence Estimate is important and is getting a lot of attention. Unfortunately, in greater context, I don’t find it the least bit reassuring. I can’t get too excited about the NIE given the recent bombing of what’s now being called a nuclear bomb factory in Syria. If those reports are accurate, it would make sense for Iran to be doing a rope-a-dope with facilities such as Natanz.
If, as is suspected, North Korea and Iran are behind the effort in Syria, Iran doesn’t have to build a bomb and they already have the rockets. They could have a Syrian assembled bomb in hours once one were constructed. If they’ve outsourced that aspect of an effort to obtain a bomb, suspending their own effort while giving the IAEA and the US fits would make perfect sense.
"A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb."