Ad-spending: As I said, FL, OH and VA
Last night on Twitter I basically pointed out that Romney’s primary path to the presidency (there are others) was through FL, OH and VA. Obviously, Team Obama knows that, hence the spending there. The state of the state-by-state chess game being played out will become increasingly clear as we move toward October. I believe Rove’s group already bought all of Florida’s air time.
Ad-spending: $634 million spent, new groups join in
In just over the last four days, almost $30 million has been booked in presidential campaign ads. Television and radio ad spending across the country now tops $634 million, according to data provided to First Read from ad-buying firm SMG Delta.
Team Romney (the campaign, RNC, and outside groups supporting him) has expanded its advantage, spending $340 million to Team Obama’s $293 million.
Team Obama had been outspending Team Romney in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. But now President Obama and his supporters only have an edge in Ohio and Colorado.
Two more outside groups have emerged onto the presidential scene with ad buys — Americans for Job Security and Secure America Now.
Here in Virginia, it appears that there’s about 5 Pro-Obama ads to every 3 Pro-Romney ads.
One of Obama’s ads is especially effective and well-constructed, I think. It begins by describing the crash and the recession (Read: Bush’s fault), then touts Obama’s programs for recovery, then damns Romney’s proposals and ends with both Clinton and Obama signing off “let’s not go back to the bad old days” (Read: Let’s defeat Bush). I believe this is now the single most frequently run ad out of either campaign.
I really wish Romney’s team would create an architecturally similar, but diametrically opposite ad. And play it non-stop.
Incidentally, I believe that outside the DC suburbs and exurbs, Romney will win overwhelmingly in Virginia.
Keep in mind that Virginia elected by a wide margin a GOP governor in 2009. And the Repubs made considerable strides in both houses of the legislature.
In 2010, Virginia flipped 3 of 4 seriously contested House seats (including Tom Perriello, for whom O campaigned heavily). The fourth, Gerry Connelly hung on by just 1100 votes.
In 2011, the GOP tied Dems in the State Senate. The tea parties remain pretty active throughout the Commonwealth.
White working class voters, especially in the small towns and rural areas have abandoned.
Black enthusiasm appears down from 2008, and it was a decisive factor in O’s win then.
I’ll admit DC Metro remains a bit of mystery to me and seems a toss-up. If Romney can hold Obama to 50-50 more or less there, he wins the Old Dominion.