Obama widens lead over Romney despite jobs data: 47 – 43
I honestly don’t see this as meaning that much, or lasting. Everything points to a largely undecided, late breaking portion of the electorate deciding this thing right now.
Obama had leapfrogged Romney in the daily tracking poll on Friday with a lead of 46 percent to 44 percent.
The president’s lead comes despite a mixed reaction to his convention speech on Thursday night in Charlotte, North Carolina, and Friday’s government data showing that jobs growth slowed sharply last month.
Obama’s lead over Romney is comparable to Romney’s former lead over the president after the Republican National Convention finished last week, Clark said.
“We don’t have another convention now to turn our attention to, so (Obama’s bounce) may maintain,” Clark said. “How big it’ll be and how long it will last remains to be seen.”
via Reuters.
Another poll right behind had Obama up 47-43 and includes the bad data from Friday.
However there is also a little history on our side. http://tinyurl.com/9cvym68 Seems according to Gallup the candidate leading in the pre-convention polls since 1952 has won all but two elections.
It’s still basically a tied race. Romney hasn’t begun to unleash millions in ads through the swing states and nation.
It seems we have a new poll discussed nearly every two or three days even though very little happens as frequently that might change things.
And Romney’s only serious full-scale exposure so far has been the convention. How many undecideds really watched? What will be more meaningful are polls in the next 3 weeks or more, after Romney and Obama ratchet up their spending on ad buys – well Romney anyway as it seems Obama has spent a wad already.
Remembering the Reagan-Carter race…
ALLLLLLLL the poles showed Carter up over Reagan.
Look up “preference cascade”.
I can’t see Romney pulling this off so late in the the game with so high an unfavorable rating. He needed to be in front at this point to have any hope.
So late in the game…????
Geez, I guess you’ll just have to watch how it is done!
To Ted I say – Obama is not benefiting much at all from the voters not accepting/favoring Romney yet. That says just as much. Romney must close the gap for sure, and his challenge will come as much from the media (behind the lines surrogates) as from the front line surrogates – the other elected class officials. Just today Sen. Levin pulled a Chuck Schumer and added more flames to Romney’s tax fire.
I am not sure the morbid fascination with polls this far out except to see that it is still a close race. I will pay more attention to the polls after the debates because that is when I feel the voters will truly make up their minds.
The absence of any loud noise from the press regarding Friday’s unemployment numbers says we are “on plan.”
This continues the Obama “LightWorker” strategy (i.e. Obama will run on the only thing he has, his popularity).
Notice that Obama’s speech on Thursday night didn’t tackle anything difficult (i.e. unemployment nada, entitlement reform nada). His polling indicated that a flat speech was his best plan of attack. He knows that all he has to do is offer the illusion of new programs (then blames Republicans when they don’t get passed) and stay away from the “heavy lifting” (let the Republicans go first). Then merely run on his popularity.