Romney Schedule: CO, 3 days in Ohio, then VA
If you accept RCP’s Obama 247 to Romney 191 numbers, here are the current battlegrounds. Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Virginia (13). For today, if Obama wins Florida, it’s an early night, barring a Wisconsin surprise.
He plans to do that beginning with the Colorado rally. Romney then launches a three-day bus tour in Ohio on Monday followed by a stop in Virginia – all states Obama won in 2008 and held by Republicans four years earlier.
The schedule shift comes in the last full week before the presidential debates move the campaign into a new phase – one which Romney advisers suggest could prove pivotal following several weeks marked by negative attention, missteps and Republican concerns.
News above from The Associated Press. Obama can play the UN speech anyway he wants, telling anyone that matters backstage to forget it, then there’s the first debate. Given early voting, it could be significant. Despite what we may all think of Obama’s first term, he pretty much has the luxury of playing defense – if the polls are to be believed.
Personally, I’ve always kept the door open for a late big break toward Romney among undecideds, similar to what we saw with Walker in WI. That’s based upon a narrative that began with the 2010 mid-terms.
I’m not sure I completely believe RCP’s calculations.
I don’t think North Carolina is really in play anymore. Obama’s giving it no love at all. Even Romney & Ryan have spent huge amounts of time there.
I do think Wisconsin is definitely in play. There are too many factors militating in favor of Romney/ Ryan making a serious play for the state, even in a very close race.
But I’m not optimistic enough to believe Michigan or Pennsylvania is seriously in play. Romney can’t capture these unless he’s leading by 5+ points. Not even the most favorable polls are showing that. Yet?
http://unskewedpolls.com/
http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition/
Read them.
It never fails. Every election the losing party goes on and on about how the polls are wrong and biased. And then come election day the polls turn out to be right.
Do you really believe the dem turnout is going to be as intense as it was in 2008? Or, even more so?
Rasmussen is the only pollster to use a combination of 2008 and 2004.
Neither OH nor NV look like tossusps right now, Obama is ahead in every poll in both states and has been for a while.
Hardly.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
Did you read the polls you linked to? Both show Obama winning.
Both polls are well within the margin of error, and we are weeks away from the election. No way Obama has this wrapped up.
Yer darn tootin’, Azblondie!
Sorry, that’s delusional. Obama is ahead in every poll in these states. Those are the facts.
I understand that, for some people, MATH is hard. So, are STATISTICS.
Not good to create you own alternative reality.
Peter is the one who has created the alternate reality. 2004 exit polls showed that Kerry won the Presidency.
2008 Obama won with about a +7 D sample
2012 Reps win landslide from states to US Congress with a +1.3 R
And how about Scott Walker recall?
No one knows what the turnout will be?
I would bet it will be closer to 2012 than 2008!!
Sorry, not true.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_bush_vs_kerry.html
I recall back in 2004 Democrats couldn’t believe Bush would win again and kept “adjusting” polls to reflect what considered to be the truth. Just like you all are doing now.
What you don’t get is that most polls are skewed, so RCP is hardly a good source.
BTW, democrat pollsters Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell disagree with you. They say the polls are skewed towards democrats in numbers greater than Obama’s win in 2008, which was an historic high at D +7.
http://www.examiner.com/article/two-democratic-pollsters-confirm-major-polls-skewed-against-mitt-romney
Joe, I believe you mean the 2010 turnout, but your points are correct. In 2010, the voter registration ID had the Rs at +1.3. This year the Rs have more than a +4 advantage. That is historic!