Political Analyst Jeff Greenfield reads the tea leaves and warns Obama, this may not end well for you

I’ve left the meat of it at link below – and there’s plenty of it. Greenfield is talking about narrative here. I believe that’s important in any national election. He looks at Reagan, even Obama’s win in 2008 and concludes, Obama may have serious reason to worry about the outcome in November.

Maybe it’s because I was told there’d be no math when I got into politics, but there comes a point in every campaign when I run screaming from the torrent of poll numbers and go looking for signs and portents, moments that (rightly or wrongly) seem to me to be of potential significance.

Sometimes they can be found in unexpected defections from the ranks. In 1980, for example, Ronald Reagan won the backing of the onetime leader of Manhattan’s Democrats—“Tammany Hall,” as the New York Democratic political machine was known back in the day—as well as former Sen. Eugene McCarthy. By themselves, they could be dismissed as aberrations (McCarthy was famously contrarian), but to me, they spoke of a shift in the political weather.

More via Straws in the wind or canaries in the coal mines?  - Yahoo! News.