Rasmussen confirms my thinking, the media and many pundits are missing the election
H/t Instapundit for this via « Hot Air. Given what my instincts were telling me, I called the few insiders I know and trust who know what the real numbers and issues are and are not. This latest from Rasmussen simply confirms everything I took away from those discussions. Forget binders, folks, or whatever else Team Obama and the media is talking about. It’s totally irrelevant. As things stand, the politics of the Left are unraveling and Team Obama remains in a serious panic, doing everything it can to try and prevent the jail break they are watching play out in poll after poll.
The Left seemed pretty pleased with Barack Obama’s performance in Tuesday night’s debate, cheering his renewed energy and aggressiveness. How did it play with voters overall? The spot polls produced mixed results, generally agreeing with most pundits that it had been a draw. Today’s Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama falling slightly further behind as the first post-debate data gets added to the mix:
The best example of Obama’s problem may be seen in this issue below.
BINDER DERANGEMENT SYNDROME: Roger L. Simon on How the Democratic Party Exploits Women.
Obama hurt himself with women in the last debate because he’s driven by Leftist politics, despite what the Team Obama fed media would have you believe. As was said to me by one contact, go back and watch the Luntz focus group and what happened with women when Obama segued from Ledbetter to contraception and social issues. If there was ever a time to invoke the phrase, It’s the economy, stupid, this is it. People are worried about binders of women, about as much as they’re worried about a boil on a gnat’s ass.
But Obama can’t talk about the real economy because it’s bad and he owns it. All he has now is a bunch of mostly ineffective talking points aimed at targeted sub groups of constituents. This is now a big and national election driven by fundamental bread and butter issues, not leftist dogma, nor the politics of divide and conquer. In short, your average undecided female voter isn’t worried about access to contraception, or co-payments for her Ob-Gyn. She’s worried about whether or not she has a job, will keep it, or get one assuming she’s unemployed.
Virginia and Colorado will likely fall away from Obama because that writing is on the wall, despite Obama’s shenanigans on defense contracting lay-offs. If Obama’s re-elected Virginia loses big on ship building and ship yards jobs, ditto Colorado as regards the Air Force and related industries. Florida has seen just enough influx of retiring Reagan Democrats in four years to give Romney the edge he needs to win that state.
Most likely, Team Obama will begin pulling resources from there to focus on Ohio. Putting aside some alternate math involving NH, NV and another state, or two – Ohio is where this election will most likely be won, or lost. Some of that may already be decided but as state-level polls run a week behind the nationals, we can’t yet be entirely certain if, or where what’s happening there trickles down precisely through this, or that state. If it does – and if national polls continue to show Romney edging forward, this one may be all but over except for the flailing of Obama’s campaign, aided and abetted by his media enablers. But that doesn’t matter as much as they’d have you believe, So, I’m hard pressed to pay much attention to it, frankly.
For now, Team Obama is looking at the very jail break they’ve dreaded since he failed to show up for the first debate. Meanwhile, Romney has absolutely hit his stride, looking every bit the hands on, take charge type of chief executive Americans are prone to look for in difficult times. Add in his timely shift toward the center and mature conservatives understanding enough of politics to not sound off in juvenile revolt, and everything is coming our way – for now. Watch for the next few sets of national polls, then the states polls that follow. With luck, this one could be over before we know it. And insiders in both parties know it, too.
SANTANA EVERYTHING’S COMING OUR WAY