Rasmussen confirms my thinking, the media and many pundits are missing the election
H/t Instapundit for this via « Hot Air. Given what my instincts were telling me, I called the few insiders I know and trust who know what the real numbers and issues are and are not. This latest from Rasmussen simply confirms everything I took away from those discussions. Forget binders, folks, or whatever else Team Obama and the media is talking about. It’s totally irrelevant. As things stand, the politics of the Left are unraveling and Team Obama remains in a serious panic, doing everything it can to try and prevent the jail break they are watching play out in poll after poll.
The Left seemed pretty pleased with Barack Obama’s performance in Tuesday night’s debate, cheering his renewed energy and aggressiveness. How did it play with voters overall? The spot polls produced mixed results, generally agreeing with most pundits that it had been a draw. Today’s Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama falling slightly further behind as the first post-debate data gets added to the mix:
The best example of Obama’s problem may be seen in this issue below.
BINDER DERANGEMENT SYNDROME: Roger L. Simon on How the Democratic Party Exploits Women.
Obama hurt himself with women in the last debate because he’s driven by Leftist politics, despite what the Team Obama fed media would have you believe. As was said to me by one contact, go back and watch the Luntz focus group and what happened with women when Obama segued from Ledbetter to contraception and social issues. If there was ever a time to invoke the phrase, It’s the economy, stupid, this is it. People are worried about binders of women, about as much as they’re worried about a boil on a gnat’s ass.
But Obama can’t talk about the real economy because it’s bad and he owns it. All he has now is a bunch of mostly ineffective talking points aimed at targeted sub groups of constituents. This is now a big and national election driven by fundamental bread and butter issues, not leftist dogma, nor the politics of divide and conquer. In short, your average undecided female voter isn’t worried about access to contraception, or co-payments for her Ob-Gyn. She’s worried about whether or not she has a job, will keep it, or get one assuming she’s unemployed.
Virginia and Colorado will likely fall away from Obama because that writing is on the wall, despite Obama’s shenanigans on defense contracting lay-offs. If Obama’s re-elected Virginia loses big on ship building and ship yards jobs, ditto Colorado as regards the Air Force and related industries. Florida has seen just enough influx of retiring Reagan Democrats in four years to give Romney the edge he needs to win that state.
Most likely, Team Obama will begin pulling resources from there to focus on Ohio. Putting aside some alternate math involving NH, NV and another state, or two – Ohio is where this election will most likely be won, or lost. Some of that may already be decided but as state-level polls run a week behind the nationals, we can’t yet be entirely certain if, or where what’s happening there trickles down precisely through this, or that state. If it does – and if national polls continue to show Romney edging forward, this one may be all but over except for the flailing of Obama’s campaign, aided and abetted by his media enablers. But that doesn’t matter as much as they’d have you believe, So, I’m hard pressed to pay much attention to it, frankly.
For now, Team Obama is looking at the very jail break they’ve dreaded since he failed to show up for the first debate. Meanwhile, Romney has absolutely hit his stride, looking every bit the hands on, take charge type of chief executive Americans are prone to look for in difficult times. Add in his timely shift toward the center and mature conservatives understanding enough of politics to not sound off in juvenile revolt, and everything is coming our way – for now. Watch for the next few sets of national polls, then the states polls that follow. With luck, this one could be over before we know it. And insiders in both parties know it, too.
SANTANA EVERYTHING’S COMING OUR WAY
Heh!
Mitt has the BIG MO.
Bad Luck Barry is breaking down.
Even though it is only a few weeks away, I think it is way too early on the political scale to consider the tide shifted. I’m not thinking contrary to polls and history, rather I’m thinking about how the Chicago-style politics may have not yet been put to full use. After all, this gang of “fill in the blank as you please” running the campaign have proven at the state level they can get easy access to sealed court documents that mysteriously appear in public media, for example. How creative or dishonest could they be if the presidency is on the line???
Except…
2010 and
Wisconsin.
I’m hoping for a night like the WI recall election night. The media was telling us it could be a long night, and it was over in 45 minutes. I certainly don’t want another 2000 or 2004!
I know everybody wants this so they can tune into MSNBC for their schadenfreude fill and be in bed, smiling by 11:30pm EST
Karl Rove goes after Obama’s real kyptonite …
“This goes to the essential flaw in Team Obama’s strategy. The president and his advisers have been so intent on disqualifying Mr. Romney that they have done a miserable job defending the president’s record and virtually nothing to frame a second-term agenda.”
There is no there, there
Exactly, and it is truly too late to show p with an agenda! They blew through a huge cash advantage this summer something like $150+ million in an effort to demonize Romney. All that vaporized during the first debate. I think the Obama campaign started believing their own false advertising and that was why Obama was completely unprepared for Romney. If they had taken an honest, unbiased view of Romney’s life and actual record they might have had a chance. Instead they viewed him through their own filter of the “rich” and failed to comprehend Romney’s strengths.
What’s to defend…???
This is going away the WORST presidential performance EVAH…!!!
Historically, Romney plays best when he has a lead. This would make him the Anti-Redskin.
I believe we will start to hear the messaging that we need to give Mitt a Republican Senate to eradicate Obama’s disastrous policies.
Yes, taking the Senate is Very important. “Harry Reid and Crew”, just out of spite,
would let this Country lapse into another
recession, or worse.
So far, there is not a single poll, even those with a HUGE Dem oversample showing an Obama uptick after the debate.
It’s like he won a close game but lost his star quarterback for the season.
its been over for months. a 47%er (approval rating) like obama cant be re-elected. he’s going to get what all encembants have always gotten: within +/- .5% of his approval, so tops out about 48% PV. and with a EV probbaly 240 tops in EVs. and the polls, when properly evaluated for partisan affiliation and DRI wieghtings, have indicated that for more than 6 months. this isnt new. and yeah, you could go to bed at about 10.15pm Nov 6.
The media is also missing what women need to be doing:
http://womenwintoo.blogspot.com/2012/10/binder-derangement-syndrome-and-other.html
O’s undoubtedly planning (if not actually executing) a military strike on the Libyans ostensibly responsible for the Benghazi attack as a way to shift the political discussion back in his favor. He’s got 3 days to make it happen before he gets trounced for lying at the Monday night debate. Watch for it!
Ah, good comments, but what makes you think ObaMAO doesn’t have a second term agenda? I believe he does (how does complete US meltdown sound?), but if he says it (the steps before the aforementioned meltdown), he definitely would lose. Even the Democrats don’t have a death wish.
Obama’s second term agenda will still exist, alongside Jimmy Carter’s, in the Failosphere. It will mutate and shift into a twisted mass of unreasoning bitterness and it will power his interference in politics. It won’t be pretty, but thankfully, it will never be fully unleashed.
I believe this disaffection would have occurred anyway, but there is a sweet scent of schadenfreude that this shift was precipitated by his arrogance and disinterest going into the debates.