September Surprise! Jobs Count Revised Down, October Bleak

October 31, 2012

Hocus-Pocus was the presumed methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (or, BS of Labor.) Pressure was created by vocal criticism of the BS of Labor from respected business titans like Jack Welch, former CEO of General Electric. That pressure has had an impact, perhaps as far as private firm ADP. Now, the methodology of the payroll processing giant has been changed – a private firm uniquely positioned to analyze private sector business employment data. And guess what? ADP, now owned by Moody’s, has revised their September private sector jobs numbers down to almost half.

Think about that. ADP ‘revised’ their already reported September job growth numbers almost half, from 162,000 reported growth in jobs to 88,200.

Any predictions on what October’s numbers, due released Thursday, are going to look like?

When the Labor Department revealed its September job count, it sparked criticism from some quarters that the numbers were being manipulated for political purposes as the November presidential election drew near.

The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government’s numbers indicate.

“It’s huge, no doubt about it,” said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. “Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we’re going to see Friday is going to be a disaster.”

Moody’s economist Mark Zandi did not return a request for comment.

Oh. So the Summer of Recovery really is officially over? Darn.

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  2. Esau's Message says:

    ADP pretty regularly overshot the BLS payroll survey, usually coming in about double the BLS number. This adjustment was long overdue.

  3. […] September Surprise! Jobs Count Revised Down, October Bleak ( […]